Complex societies require cheap, reliable energy and the requirement rises exponentially with linear increase in complexity. Apparently, Europe didn't get this message, so Germany shut their nuclear reactors and all of Europe is exiting their supply of cheap Russian natgas for nonsensical ideological reasons. They sacrifice their economies for their unfounded hate of Russia.
An excellent report from Dark Span explains the natgas situation, titled "Europe Just Ran Out Of Gas Options – And There's No Backup Left"
"Right now, across Europe, there is a number on a screen. And that number is counting down faster than anyone predicted. We're not talking about days of gas left—that's an oversimplification. We're talking about a safety cushion that's deflating at an alarming speed.
Here's the situation on the ground in February 2026. European gas storage, the buffer built up over the summer, is being drained at a rate of over 730 million cubic meters every single day to keep homes heated and lights on during this cold, windless winter. Germany's reserves are at a tense 29%. France is at 28%. The Netherlands is down to 22%. These are the reserves that were supposed to last. The math is brutally simple: at this withdrawal rate, the continent's storage tanks could be practically empty by the end of March. The immediate crisis isn't about the lights going out tomorrow; the system is holding, but just barely. The real, palpable fear in energy ministries from Berlin to Paris is what comes next. The monumental, eye-wateringly expensive task of refilling those vast empty caverns from almost zero before next winter begins. That scramble, happening later this year, will be a financial black hole. It will dictate energy prices for everyone and define Europe's economic pain for all of 2026. The bill for this winter is about to come due."
Just as EU was finalizing its ban on Russian gas, approving a major regulation in Jan, Russia was exporting record volume to EU, a monthly record in January. According to these new regulations, by April 2026, all short-term LNG contracts with Russia must end, and all Russia LNG imports must end by January 2027, and pipelined gas by Sept 30, 2027.
It gets worse! By March 1, 2026, all EU nations must submit detailed natgas plans on how they will end all Russian natgas and diversify their supply. Failure to submit reports and do the diversity results in massive fines! In this nasty cold winter, EU has been consuming 739 million cubic feet (mcf) per day. As mentioned, reserves may be depleted by end of March. And forward looking, those reserves must be refilled before next winter, creating a big black hole in EU finances. Even if world supply were adequate. They should have had more U.S. LNG shipments during this winter, but the U.S. also had a severe cold snap. They hit a record highest 7-day demand in history, using 360 BILLION cu ft in one week in "Winter Storm Fern." EU has been taking 58% of U.S. LNG production and overall world supply is facing challenges. Demand in Asia is increasing, demand in EU is increasing as they deliberately cut themselves off of Russian gas, and AI development along with new data centres is increasing U.S. demand. The U.S. will soon lose its 60% discount to world prices since the whole world is competing for dwindling supplies, as indicated in a recent report by Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC, "Natural Gas: A Research Odyssey – 01/21/2026," both the Marcellus and Permian Basin's gas (and oil) supplies are entering decline.
"Houston, we have a problem." Yes, you, Houston, the carbon-based energy industry. Remember, Dr. James Hansen's testimony before U.S. Congress was back in 1988. Thirty-eight years ago, almost four decades. But nothing meaningful has been done to embrace non-carbon energy sources, thus the present CO2 level at Mona Loa is almost 430 ppm, essentially double the increase from 1900 to 1988. People, this is getting serious. On one hand, the climate is moving beyond being comfortable. A damaged environment cannot support complex societies. On the other hand, as mentioned, complex societies require massive amounts of cheap energy. I should also add, cheap AND SIMPLE. Overly complex energy systems are not sustainable and that includes nuclear. The "too cheap to meter" description was pure myth. Most people don't realize that nuclear power does not provide any electrons – it only makes heat, or as Karl Grossman said, "It's a hell of a way to boil water."
Yes, people keep hoping for an "energy transition" but note that this scheme requires massive new mining and refining and new factories and new products, and every step of that requires massive energy inputs – all the diesel for the mining equipment, etc. So the great need for alternatives, delayed for no good reason since actually well before 1988, hits at this present time when diminishing carbon-sourced energy is beginning its decline. And remember, world population has doubled since 1975 (to 2023), for no good reason.
Obviously, there's no quick fix, best that can be done immediately is to minimize energy consumption. Possibly the single biggest driver of the economy is engaging in activities that reduce human boredom. Just try to think of some part of society's activities that isn't involved in reducing boredom – sports, recreation, Olympics, travel, tourism, air travel, cruises, vacations (and planning them), holidays (and planning them), it goes on and on. Thus perhaps the best thing you can do to reduce emissions is nothing! Stop fighting boredom. Read a book, write something! Grow some zucchinis and don't put them on people's porches, blanch and freeze them and have veggies for the winter. See my recipe for Sautéed Zucchinis on a previous post.
Subscribe to Dark Span and see their other podcasts at The Dark Span, on YouTube.
Leave a comment! This is a re-direct to my Substack page.
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